Saturday, December 01, 2007

Nuclear Iran

Daniel Drezner talks about possible ‘end game’ of Russia and China in regards to nuclear Iran. (http://www.danieldrezner.com/blog/ ‘What are Russian and China’s End Game on Iran?’) But USA may have reached a stage when it will have to act regardless of what Russia and China want to do in the end.

Nuclear Iran has two problems:
- the nuclear proliferation it will result when Iran goes nuclear (Saudi, Egyptian and Turkey nuclear bombs?) and
- the real danger of undertaking irreversible damage to Israel, resulting in strategic victory to Iranian Islamic fanaticism (which is different than Al-Qaeda’s Sunni fanaticism).

One is tempted to think that Russia and China will not be irresponsible to the extent of not recognizing ultimate threats emerging out of above mentioned two dangers. Chinese will be fools to keep on repeating ‘harmonious society and peaceful rise of China’ if they do not see dangers of multiple nuclear states around it’s borders and Russians are eventually unlikely to get back their cherished ‘mantle’ of world super power if they become ‘too smart for their own good nation’ sitting on fence so that only USA does the dirty work.

Though the focus of Daniel Drezner's blog article is what Russia and China ultimately want in regards to nuclear ambitions of Iran, I would rather prefer to ask a na├»ve question keeping aside this focus – can USA afford to leave this grave threat to the cynicism of Russia and China? Forget about dangers to Russia and China, why nuclear Iran which has ‘wiped out’ Israel will not be the ultimate threat to USA itself? What basis do we have to assume that no other Iranian leader would like to follow the path laid by Ahmadinejad in destroying Israel and wielding enormous hegemony if the current Iranian president does not succeed in setting the Middle East tinder box on fire?

Ultimately uncontrolled nuclear Iran is and should be ‘unacceptable’ to USA. Europe should be a natural partner in this endeavor. Notwithstanding favorable noise made by Sarkozy along these lines, one can not count much on the European ‘muscle’ if there is any such entity. Saudis may be more useful than Europe in this matter.

All this does not mean I want to suggest that tomorrow USA declares yet another war in Middle East to wage a campaign against Iran. Granted, North Korea turn around came only when USA worked in tandem with China and other countries. But all these issues with Iran do mean USA has to have a policy to deal with Iran in isolation when multilateral strategy is coming to a dead end. There is no point in clinging to North Korean model for the sake of ‘policy insistence’. Each problem demands its own distinctive approach. With Iran it looks more and more unilateral American approach along with some nations possibly on board (France, Saudi Arabia?).

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