Saturday, January 23, 2010

America in Turmoil

Now that we have 5% market drop in 3 days, we are getting everyone's attention towards the turmoil America is in after the MA Senate Election. The primacy of Politics has come back with vengeance, not necessarily in any good sense.

What has happened after MA Senate Election is, Tea Party is getting firmly established in American Political Spectrum. What started with NY-23 election, it is culminating in positive result for the Tea Party. So this is how we stand in the Political Spectrum of America today:


































































Left / Netroots



Democrats



Republican



Tea Party



Media Outlets



Huffington Post, DailyKos, Firedoglake, MoveOn Org



New York Times



RealClearPolitics .com, National Review Online, Weekly Standard,
Wall Street Journal



Fox News, Drudge Report



Visible official / unofficial Leaders



Howard Dean



Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid



John McCain, Eric Cantor, Pense, McConnell



Sarah Palin, Glen Beck, Scott Brown(?), Ron Paul(?)



Intellectuals



Simon Johnson, Arian Huffington



Paul Krugman, Larry Summers, Thomas Friedman



Fred Barnes, Charles Krauthammer, George Will



Rush Limbaugh



Issue 1 - Fed Chairman Bernanke Second Term



Oppose



Support



Mixed Support



Possibly Oppose



Issue 2 - Health Care Reform



Mixed Support



Support



Oppose



Oppose



Issue 3 - Firing Geithner



Support



Oppose



Don't care, but politically prefer to continue this 'albatross' for Obama



Don't care, but firing that scum bag is not a bad idea



Issue 4- How to create jobs?



More liquidity via Fed (Gagnon Plan?)



More Pork, dollars for union work like Transportation, Teachers,
etc.



Do nothing. Let Big Business grow.



May be help to small business?



Issue 5 - Foreign Wars (Iraq and Afghanistan)



Get out



Stay where we are



More boots on the ground



Get out



Now it is true, that more or less this is how the arrangement has been in America. However, Tea Party is a curious phenomenon where it is a mixture of populism and conservative ideas. It is not just 'ultra conservatism'. Sarah Palin and Glen Beck exemplify that at best. MA Senator Scott Brown ensured that how he would distance from the standard Republican machine and GOP has a classic problem on hand - how to ride the tiger of Tea Party.

Lot of Independents who back Barack Obama originally came from Republican Party. But today those have returned to Tea Party instead of going back home to GOP. That makes Barack Obama and Democratic Leadership's problem acute - they need to cater for three blocks: Left / Netroots, regular Democratic Party and now Tea Party too. Looking at the issues, it is clear that this is near impossible.

Taking on Wall Street is a strategy to address both extremes - Left/Netroots and Tea Party. But inherent Corporists influence of Rahm Emmanuel, Larry Summer, Chuck Schumer of the traditional Democratic Party would not allow Barack Obama to take on Wall Street clearly. Barack Obama is unlikely to undertake 'thorough' reforms here. Case in point is Bernanke re-appointment. If Barack Obama wants to save his politics, he needs to take out that nomination. But that is also at the same time 'giving in' to traditional Republicans because any time your own nomination goes down, you hand a win to opposition i.e. traditional Republicans here.

With Barack Obama's Wall Street fight ingrained for a failure; come November, Republican and Tea Parties are going to increase their presence in Congress at the cost of Democrats. Chances of American Economy improving during this period of turmoil, which can buffer Democrats, are not bright. Going forward with reduced Democratic presence in Congress, Republicans and Tea Party are going to make the life of Barack Obama miserable to ensure that his Presidency does not do anything constructive.

Hence, the importance of completing ongoing bills like Health Care Reform for Democrats - that ensures foundation for their constructive Politics. This means lots of guts and fights. Fight is also needed while taking on Wall Street.

This political fighting spirit seems to be the Achilles heel for Democrats.

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