Saturday, January 30, 2010

Taiwan Weapon Sale

Obama Administration is proposing to sale more than 6 Billion dollar worth weapons to Taiwan. Question is - is Obama Administration saying to China, if you do not cooperate on Iran, this is what going to happen? I doubt Obama Admin will be able to pull through this 'sale of weapons to Taiwan'. With every passing year as China Economy grows and gets heft, China is becoming more belligerent about Taiwan. From Chinese perspective, all the necessary biding of keeping low about Taiwan is done, behind and the time is approaching to finally swallow Taiwan. So they are not going to keep quiet and will make huge noise as well as damage. Besides, igniting nationalistic emotions is always good for Communist China and that is what Taiwan weapon sale will offer the opportunity.

Should Obama Admin. not do then this sale? No, I am not saying that. All I am saying is, Admin should not make an empty offer just to nudge China in it's Iran policy. Obama Administration must be ready to follow through this weapon sale despite all of it's consequences. In light of Chinese pressure to back from this offer without getting anything in return (say China's turn about Iran policy as an example and possible quid pro) will be extremely damaging to Obama Administration.

In the first year Obama Administration is reasonable in it's Foreign Policy and there are not too many failures apart from apparently non-working Iran policy. So Obama Administration should not invite any avoidable damage with China if it is not ready to follow through what it is saying about Taiwan. My feeling is, it is hard to have confidence about Obama Administration that it will continue to show such 'guts and nerves' in following through the Taiwan offer. One has to wait and see how this show unfolds as in all probability this is just a first 'act'.

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