Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Debt Ceiling Drama Update

Here are my observations about the unfolding drama:

- Speaker Boehner is fighting back and in all probability will carry the day tomorrow. But if House Dems stick to the unity show, they can effectively argue about the lack of ‘bi-partisan’ support to the bill. In the national theatre, that is worth a point in favor of Dems.

- I hope Democratic Senators take it to their hearts some non-flattering description of them by Speaker Boehner - ‘will fold like a cheap suite’. Signs are encouraging, they have to keep this unity. Because if indeed Dems in House and Senate are able to show the unity, Speaker Boehner’s victory tomorrow would hardly change the reality on ground.

- Most probably, by tomorrow’s vote Speaker Boehner achieves two things: a) he keeps his job and b) he clears the deck for the eventual break of GOP votes in House wherein he passes a bill with House Dem and fewer GOP while Tea Party Members are then freed from the Boehner slavery to oppose everything.

- Tomorrow’s vote basically reminds the political drama at the time of passing of ObamaCare. Core liberals and progressives were upset for the ‘lack of public option’ and then Obama rallied them. We are in effect seeing the same phenomenon here. Nothing unusual (policy craziness of Tea Party - that is a different matter); that is how party politics work in America. As expected ‘hatred of Obama’ would overcome the disgruntling feeling against Speaker Boehner. But boy, if you read RedState, there are some seriously upset folks on ultra right.

- America losing triple A rating is almost given. American people and America as a whole are very likely to pay high price for this debacle. In short term it is all going to be pure collective pain. Assuming Americans give a clear verdict in 2012 election (if not even God cannot help them), things are not going to look up till then.

- President Obama will not have any other option than to become a party man. If Obama looses badly here, much higher probability in any case, Chief of Staff Daley will have to go. No wonder, like a clock work news about Ed Rendell is back.

Programming Note - I will be travelling to India and will be unable to keep up with developments. Oh yes, I would miss the drama here. I just hope that Dollar remains a legal tender by the time I come back by next weekend.

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