Sunday, August 26, 2012

Consequences of American Election

Every candidate proclaims that this is the most important election in generations. We can leave that job to Historians, let us say including discredited Historians like Niall Ferguson.

However, there are few things which are very clear:
- Republican strategists themselves admit that this will be in all likelihood the last election where GOP is beholden to White American votes. Demographics in America is changing at such a wrap speed that come 2016, no American political party can only depend on White American Male constituency so exclusively.
- By relying on this diminishing demographic slice of electorate, Romney is running a risky campaign. Last minute attempts to come to Center, no one knows how successful those will be.

If Romney wins, apart from legislating brutal Paul Ryan budget for America's Middle Class and Poor; what it means is GOP gets an opportunity and time to 'align itself' with the emerging demographic reality. 

Else it would mean essentially an 'existential challenge' to GOP as it is. That is what Barack Obama's victory means, in no uncertain terms an epoch changing event; even if it means 'no mandate to a particular party'. Victory of the sitting Democratic President in today's times means hastening realignment between Tea Party and Republican establishment. It is hard for me to see how all that can be peaceful and without some brutal politics consequences.

In other words, I just don't buy that victory for Obama in Nov 2012 cannot be earth shattering. It will be so. Question is - is that what Americans want? We will have to wait till the evening of November 6, 2012 to know the final answer.

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