Wednesday, November 06, 2013

Yesterday's Elections

1. De Blasio's victory in New York was given. But this 'hard Left' turn of Democratic base is worrying. Considering a solid mandate De Blasio has got, it will be difficult for him to avoid enacting at least part of his partisan agenda. When a politician is required to enact such an ideological agenda, the question is will he be a Scott Walker - the Wisconsin Governor who enacted the hard ideological agenda early in the term, fought the opposition and finally prevailed. Or he becomes like Barack Obama where early in his term, he enacted his promise to his base - ObamaCare and there after continued to bleed all over the term; compounded by his administrative incompetence. I am doubtful De Blasio will be able to bring any better Administrative Competence than Obama Administration (whatever it is) or truly competent current Mayor Bloomberg.

I can be wrong, but I doubt De Blasio and his base would have given attention to limits of a city mayor office. Howsoever powerful a mayor is of a rich city like New York, there are going to be enormous constraints to execute any European style Leftist Agenda. Just by winning a city office without much influence at State and National level; you cannot achieve lot. In other words, De Blasio and his base are likely to make the same mistake as like House Tea Party members who think controlling House mean they can fully enact their agenda as they will.

All this means, there lies enormous possibilities for disappointments in De Blasio's tenure. Possibility is how Nancy Pelosi served as Liberal West Coast whipping girl of Conservatives, De Blasio would easily emerge as East Coast Liberalism gone amok. Reality may not develop like that and my fears could be exaggerated; but Conservatives can sure make a caricature of De Blasio as 'return of disastrous Tax and Spend Liberalism' of past.

2. I think McAuliffe winning margin was for sure very thin than what polls predicted earlier. Seems like those polls over-played depth and spread of Blue Votes. But in the end reality is McAuliffe started the uphill battle (his own history and incumbent Republican advantage in Virginia) and won the election. Thin margin is better in a sense that it should put some leash on otherwise easily carried away McAuliffe. He has got some serious opportunity to clear his name by undertaking some sensible 'middle of the road' competent governance.

Other than that, all these tea leaves reading of 'ill portends for Democrats' in the voting patterns and all that; I do not believe there is much to read there; except that pollsters should adjust their voting models to avoid projecting Dem winners so overwhelmingly.

3, About Chris Christie - I fail to read much in his re-election. He is a popular leader so it matters less that he is a Red politician in a Blue State. Apart from name recognition, I doubt this would facilitate anything much for Christie candidacy in coming days.

4. As many have rightly pointed, the real news is the defeat of an extremist Tea Party member in Arkansas House race by a mainstream GOP candidate. That is a first clear sign of Business Community trying to differentiate between Nihilism of Tea Party and business friendly mainstream Republican Party. In trying to push USA over the cliff of Default and shutting down the Federal Government, Tea Party folks have proven their Nihilistic Credentials and slowly Business community is waking up to the task - rank opposition to Democrats does not mean you accept Nihilism of Tea Party. That is a big takeaway here.

There are few who wonder 'better than expected show by Tea Party candidate Cuccinelli' in VA Gov Race will embolden Tea Party rather than veering GOP to moderation. But for every such takeaway, you have the observation of fall of Dean Young. Republicans are going to allow shenanigans of Tea Party at their own peril. If nothing else, so much  divided Republican Party means continued political gains to Democrats despite overall situation being not that favorable.

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