Sunday, August 23, 2015

Time for Biden-Warren Ticket?

Political media is ablaze with unscheduled meeting between VP Biden and Senator Warren. There have been reports lately that VP Biden wants to throw his hat in the Democratic Presidential Nominee contest. 

Biden candidacy as a 'back stop' for Hillary Clinton political bleeding is an understandable proposition from Democrat point of view. Clinton is rightly or wrongly getting embroiled so much in her email scandal that there is a real possibility that by the time Hillary Clinton wins Democratic Nomination; she is completely damaged politically to a point as a sitting duck so that Republican wins the White House easily. At that point with the dominance of GOP in both chambers of Congress; Republicans will be in total control of Federal Power to undertake thorough dismantling of Obama Policy regime (primarily breaking ObamaCare, reverting tax increase for rich to go back to Bush Tax Cuts, scrap Iran Nuclear Deal, rescind immigration easing and EPA actions among many others). Relative easy of winning White House is the only thing otherwise in advantage of Democrats as the vice like grip of GOP on House is unlikely to go till 2022. Indeed if American Politics were parliamentary politics, Democrats by now need to hit the panic button for the possible scenario of complete power loss come 2016. 

As usual, the problem of Democrats is the problem of Clintons. Infamous 'sense of entitlement' prodded Hillary to opt for private email server during her stint at Foggy Bottom. Imagine you are working for Walmart or Microsoft or IBM or Boeing as an executive and you decide to use your own private email address and server to conduct your business. True, in corporate context it will be illegal and it was at least not so when Hillary was Sec. of State. But still utter lack of judgement and tendency 'to consider oneself above everyone else' is jaw dropping here. That is Clintons.

Having committed political foolishness in using her own email server, she just kept digging the hole further rather than coming out clean early. Not that she has not revised her policy position - look how Americans accept her Iraq vote as the mistake to be pardoned. But then you have again infamous Clinton mendacity - keep refusing any wrong doing on your part and worst of all keep blaming your political opponents.

Truly speaking Democrats might have been tired of this Clinton line of "this is politics as usual from Republicans" when they are raking up email controversy. But your political opposition keeps digging your past - what is new in that; that is their job. But how long Democratic base have to excuse and defend Hillary for her 'flat foot, awkward politics'? No wonder, Joe Biden sees an opening. He will make the case that in order to sustain the Obama legacy he is the best man to do.

On his own Joe Biden has no chance of beating even embattled Hillary Clinton. Despite knowing her faults and political baggage; Democratic base and establishment are too vested in her (and that inevitability is what GOP precisely wants since then by 2016 they will get a sitting duck given how many skeletons Hillary would be carrying in her closets). That is where the darling of Left Elizabeth Warren comes into the picture. She is the one who will be natural vessel for Left's crusade against Wall Street as well as full embodiment of Women voters base of Democratic Party. Especially if Biden gives upfront commitment that he will be only one term president - more in the mode of a care taking president for Obama Policy Regime until Elizabeth Warren completes her apprenticeship and takes over in 2020 with full gusto.

It will be sad to see Hillary go ashtray. She will fight, but kicking, dragging and screaming; may be the time has come for Democratic Party to remove her from its mast. Not sure whether Republicans will be happy to prevail on Clinton Machine or losing an opportunity of having a sitting duck on the Democratic ticket in 2016. But Biden-Warren Ticket will have to deal with strengthened Republican Party once Hillary Clinton withdraws. Of course, Donald Trump is there to keep dragging the entire Republican Party in gutter politics where in no Republican has any ability to stop the descend. On that background the late entry of Biden-Warren ticket should still make it viable politically.

In 2004, the 251 electoral votes which John Kerry carried; that can be regarded as the rock bottom Blue base from where every Democratic ticket in 2016 will start. Biden-Warren will be purely a Left ticket with no ability to cross over to Red voters unlike what Hillary Clinton can bring. The gap of 25 (Kerry states will yield 7 votes less in 2016 due to population changes) electoral votes should not be that hard for the Left ticket of Biden-Warren as Barack Obama carried Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado and Iowa (total 30 electoral votes) both in 2008 and 2012. Point is for a pure partisan Democratic Ticket to carry 2016, reliability of Blue Electoral votes is very high even if vote margin may not be that high. It may not sound the strongest political play for Democrats, but perfectly viable given the compromised 'hand' Hillary Clinton has pulled on Democratic Party.

No comments: