Monday, August 15, 2016

2016 American Election - Continued Commentary #5

Some are calling 'zero hour is approaching', while others are saying 'the race is over'. Meanwhile Democratic President is warning his base, rightly so, about the complacency. From my perch it is true that Trump is unlikely to win. American Public, along with rest of the world, is 'getting adjusted to this reality. Unfolding of that process is what is happening now. It is the process of grieving and loss acceptance for Trump and his supporters. His politically untenable media outburst is one more sign of such acceptance. 

Few things which can change the election course dramatically are:
- some massive terrorist attack which challenges all our assumptions about America's security in post 9/11 world; or
- equally cataclysmic event outside of USA (but that is likely to benefit Hillary more) or
- unearthing of some massive Hillary scandal which we have not heard so far (so called October Surprise). But with Trump advisers getting exposed in corruption scandals, probability of a scandal hit is higher for Trump Campaign than Hillary.

As far as Financial Market surprises go, I think economy and financial markets will hold till elections. With Helicopter Money Drop undertaken by central bankers around the world, and no way so far to dislodge 'new normal'; financial markets are likely to be in a holding pattern in next few months.

Earlier I thought Republican Party will be destroyed after Trump candidacy. Now, I am not so sure. I can see how Paul Ryan or other Republicans will simply turn the page and start the new political life after Trump - essentially starting the political scorched earth campaign against Hillary just like how Mitch McConnell did against Obama. Neither Ryan will pay any price nor much will change with Republican Party albeit with some reduced 'base'. This is especially true after Trump essentially buried the Tea Party Movement.[1]

But racial residue of Tea Party will continue to remain with the Republican Party. As long as Obama's Spotify Summer Playlist is conceived as more of an enemy; we have a pretty long way to go so far as defeating the White Ethno-nationalism of Republican Party is concerned.

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[1] - In my mind there are 2 crucial contributions from Donald Trump to American Politics in last one year or so:
- defeat of Ted Cruz's candidacy as that cunning, self serving politician should be kept away from Oval Office as much as possible; and
- help wipe out Tea Party by occupying its silver in the political spectrum but then to turn on his back on the constitutionalism of Tea Party or its fiscal prudence. 

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