Here is how I see November 4th in 2016 campaign:
- Narrative not much changed. Clinton still on defensive but possibly might have bottomed out. Nate Cohn appropriately speculated so at the start of the day and Nat Silver seems to imply so at the end of the day.
- But again it is the 'state of polling' not actual voting. Data about early voting is becoming lot interesting and potentially pointing towards a possibility that actual voting may differ than assumptions of pollsters. Two things stand out:
2) For most states early in person and in mail votes are very high, surpassing 2012 easily + North Carolina (except Iowa and California).
Go figure what that means.
- Other than that, kind of quiet day as last campaign days gala concerts and celebrity appearances are kicking in; mostly on Dem side.
- Trump must be thanking his staff for forcing Mike Pence on him given how Chris Christie would have been a disaster.
- It is note worthy how Obama Presidency has taken out Economy as the campaign issue: 73rd month of continuous employment growth, highest ever since America started to track this statistics. But not much discussion about this number. No wonder Trump's nastiness surfaces as the campaign topic more.