Sunday, November 06, 2016

2016 American Election - Continued Commentary #12

Here is how 2016 election looks on the last Sunday morning before the election day:

- The big development yesterday was we have started to identify the upper limit of the best case Clinton Victory margin. Sure, Clinton might have sealed Nevada and that is all good; but Obama did win that state in 2012 along with Iowa and Ohio. The big news is - Iowa seems to have slipped from Clinton. The state Obama won twice does not seem to be coming for HRC, let it sink. In other words, in the end the White Vote matters. Unless White Women Voters break for Hillary in a big and meaningful way; we are looking at a trench warfare for Clinton Victory.

- Compared to Obama 2012 victory, the only additional states Clinton might have in play for Democrats are North Carolina and Arizona. In both of these states nothing is guaranteed like Nevada.

- Overall, Clinton might have stopped her vote bleeding; but Trump is in the 'play' because Clinton essentially may waste lot of votes in states where she does not have a chance - like of Arizona and Texas. And yes, we are talking here a possibility that Clinton may get popular vote (potentially more than Obama in 2012) but still she may loose electoral votes.

- Considering Latin Vote surge in Sun Belt and persistent, worrisome lack of White votes for Hillary in Mid-West and certain pockets of North-East; we may be looking at a colossal rapture in American vote: Sun Belt versus Rust Belt. Fundamentally, there is no Obama Coalition for Hillary to ride on. Economic problems of White Working Class in Mid-West and North-East are not new and those were still there in Obama elections. But Trump campaign has essentially elevated those grievances to a political level where it will be impossible to brush aside. When Obama got elected in 2008 and 2012, across the board economic crisis essentially suppressed those issues. But in last 8 years, Sun Belt has recovered lot making the difference with Rust Belt more prominent. We will get wealth of data on Wednesday and then we can see how this Sun Belt versus Rust Belt narrative holding up.

- A friend shared a slogan on a lighter vain:

"If Trump wins, we will need Marijuana to be legal....When they go low, we go high!".

Hillary has been touting Michael Obama quote for a while: "when they go low, we go high". More liberal states like California want to follow Colorado or Oregon so far as liberalized approach to Marijuana goes, hence the slogan. Otherwise how will Californians deal with the consequent depression upon Trump win!

Personally I do not support Marijuana and voted against that proposition in California. I am generally with California Governor Jerry Brown here, but he has not been very forthright about the current proposition. Possibly because majority Californians are likely to back recreational use of marijuana on Tuesday November 9th. 

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Hillary will win more than 300 EVs.

She will carry Arizona, Florida, North Carolina.