Monday, November 07, 2016

2016 American Election - Continued Commentary #13

Way back at the traditional start of the American Campaign - Labor Day, first Monday of September - I had laid down my numbers:

Hillary carries Kerry Blue States + Colorado + Virginia + New Mexico = 273 EVs

That is how she secures her victory and the base line scenario for tomorrow confirms that.

I had wondered about the potential danger of New Mexico and surprisingly it has shown some softness recently for Democrats as the third party candidate takes few votes. But tomorrow, I expect NM to remain Blue, again as needed on the stregth of Latino Vote.

And I expect Hillary to retain Upper and Midwest Blue Wall states: MI, WI, MN and PA; despite all the recent talk of Sun Belt versus Rust Belt.

Hillary has got her insurance in NV and that could compensate any loss of NH, in case "New England Football Team Coach and Quarter Back" steals it from HRC. It will raise some eyebrows if Hillary losses NH, but again NV insurance works.

After that, all bets are off. So the first order of the business for Hillary Campaign is to retain Virginia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Colorado as potentially not so encouraging news come from North Carolina and Florida.

So now let us talk about tomorrow's marquee contests: Florida and North Carolina. Current read is NC seems for Trump while Clinton has a chance in FL. I will not be surprised if long lines and counting in those two states drag longer until the election is decided by Colorado then.

Ohio is another interesting state to watch. In last few days, it was almost gone from Clinton Campaign; but late moves are showing a strong wind for Hillary. Also another state which I will be watching is Arizona to detect the scale of Latino Vote Tsunami and to see if Latino's can tip that state for Hillary. We will see. 

Senate - I would give Dems 50 seats, anything above as bonus. With Clinton in White House, even 50-50 Senate is good for Democrats.

House - I guess the goal for Dems should be they do not loose any more seats. Unless and until Eric Holder & Barack Obama address the gerrymandering game of House after 2020 census; Democrats do not have much chance.

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