Sunday, November 06, 2016

Non-issue of FBI Investigations

FBI finds nothing to change as far as their July assessment of Hillary goes.[1] I think lot of Hillary Backers did harm to their cause and the candidate - case in point is the stalwart blogger like Josh Marshall of TalkingPointsMemo. These backers overreacted and challenged integrity of FBI boss Comey. I think Marc Ambinder at The Week got it right.

What about my own judgment? Good question - I do not think I flunk the test. I saw no point regurgitating FBI re-opening issue politically. Clinton Campaign demanded more information, that was fair and the matter needed to rest there.[2]

Obama Administration not going on the 'fishing trip' of condemning FBI Director Comey was a wise approach too. "We do not operate on innuendos" that was as far as President should have gone and good that he stopped there.

Anyways, politically I am not so sure how all these new, late game developments impact the election. There are polls saying 1-in-3 thought matter grave enough to reassess their vote for Clinton. Sites like 538 landed of showing Clinton chances from 80+% to 65%. If all that is true, then in states like Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Michigan; Clinton may benefit since all or bulk of voting in these states happen on the election date.

Regardless, Clinton Campaign basically got 3 news to cheer so far:
- Going into the election day her national lead is still intact, even if it is reduced.
- Tsunami of Latino Votes is building in earnest.

Clinton Campaign in still not out of woods. Persistent and nagging problems like:
- Softness in support of White Voters in Upper Blue Wall (states like IA, MI, WI, OH, PA and NH which voted Obama twice).
- Black votes not matching Obama election numbers and in a crucial state like North Carolina falling off the cliff. In Florida though Obama Campaigning has brought back all of 2012 votes or more.

So overall the narrative is whether Clinton holds Upper Blue Wall (MI, WI, OH, PA & NH) and add news bricks from Sun Belt (AZ, GA, NC, TX is stretch may not be possible now) to get a solid to land slide victory built on:

Left Coast (CA, OR, WA) + East Coast + Sun Belt.


[1] - FBI Directory Comey is right to praise FBI staff which pulled off review of thousands of emails in a short period. When there are persistent rumors of FBI as a 'divided house organization'; Comey has to do everything to keep agency's workers happy and united and focused on their jobs rather than politics. 

[2] - My bigger worry was what if something damaging was found in those new emails? With Clintons, you have to be always on guard and if she gets elected I want this blog as one of those who always keeps her administration on toes. I will spell out in detail what I expect from Clinton Administration, but first let her win this gig.

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