Wednesday, November 09, 2016

President Trump - Few Immediate Thoughts

1. Donald Trump secured a convincing victory. Democratic Blue Wall did not hold in Upper Mid West. Nate Cohn of New York Times had been sounding alarm bells for a while about the 'Dem softness in Rust Bell' and those worries turned out to be true. Also lack of polling off guarded Hillary Campaign and as folks like Ronald Brownstein speculated, essentially Trump 'out-foxed' Democrats in Mid-west. Warnings from analyst like Cohn or Nate Silver of 538 about Dem weakness in Rust Belt came too late for HRC Campaign to respond as it was pummelled by FBI news in last few weeks.

2. American Politics is not yet there where these losses for Democratic Party can be recouped from Sun Belt. It will be there sometime in future but not now.

3. As Democrats are completely eviscerated at least at the Federal Level, Republicans should be able to rule next 2 years with impunity. The only Obama Legacy about which they will not be able to do anything is:
- Obama helped America to come out of 2008 recession and helped to have 73 months of continuous job growth; and
- He ran his administration relatively scandal free.

Apart from that, things which will be completely destroyed by Trump and Republican Congress in coming days will be:
- Repeal of ObamaCare without getting replaced by anything much
- Dramatic adjustments to Dodd-Frank law
- Tax Cuts for Rich
- Appointing a conservative supreme court judge who will help to remove Roe-Wade ruling
- Breaking of Iran nuclear deal
- Stopping restoration of normal relations with Cuba
- Reverting all of EPA restrictions so as Global Warming concerns are thrown to the wind
- Not honoring Paris Climate Accord
- Dismantling ICAAN control on Internet to bring it back with Commerce Department, which will in turn set the chain reaction of other nations balkanizing the Internet which will deliver a blow to current Silicon Valley companies.

4. Someone will need to tell President-Elect that he needs to appoint a good Treasury secretary so as Global Capital Markets stop freaking out. He will also have to make a decision whether he wants Janet Yellen to stay or not. Because if he and Republican Congress all they want to do is fight here; that is not going to serve any purpose. President-elect Trump better nominate whosoever his choice is. In all probability, President Trump would appoint a person who will increase interest rates faster; potentially crippling the continued economic growth. In general a quicker articulation of 'how a stable economic policy' Trump Administration wants to pursue, that will be the only thing which will help Markets to stabilize.

5. Finally, President-Elect Trump will also have to appoint good Defense Secretary and Secretary of State so that defense and foreign policies are quickly articulated. In absence of that, again uncertainty and geo-political risks will increase impacting Global Capital Markets negatively.

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